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May 29, 2002

Busy with two babies right

Busy with two babies right now -- one three weeks old, and the other born once a month.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 24, 2002

Rafe Colburn, agreeing with my

Rafe Colburn, agreeing with my recent Business 2.0 article, points to something I should have thought of: "Check out Amazon's listing of software development job openings, it's pretty obvious that Amazon is a software company masquerading as a retailer."

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

This MS Word HTML fixer

This MS Word HTML fixer looks like a useful tool. I'll have to try it some time.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 23, 2002

Best laptop for realtime blogging?

Dave Winer asks what is the best laptop for blogging at conferences. Personally, I love my IBM Thinkpad X20. It's small (<4 pounds, just over 1 inch thick), has 3+ hours battery life, and (this is the key point) IBM makes the best keyboards of any laptop vendor. Never under-estimate the importance of the keyboard if writing is what you use the machine for. The WiFi connection is a snap for me with a Cisco Aironet 350 card and WinXP Pro; current IBM models offer WiFi support built in.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

TCP/IP co-creator Bob Kahn: "The

TCP/IP co-creator Bob Kahn: "The Internet is an architectural philosophy, rather than a technology."

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Netflix had a successful IPO

Netflix had a successful IPO today. Google can't be far behind in filing to go public. The IPO market in 2002 won't be great, but quality companies still can make it out. I'm still scratching my head about Paypal, though. Sure, they have huge numbers of users and revenue growth. It's hard to see (1) how they achieve sustained profitability, given the current and potential competitors, and (2) how they ever completely escape the risk of catastrophic fraud.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 22, 2002

Found here: Thanks for your

Found here:



Thanks for your interest in Google Labs.

The lab is temporarily closed as we deal with an experiment that got slightly out of hand. Nothing to be concerned about, really. All of our engineers are perfectly safe and there was never any real danger of it escaping into the wild.

Please check back in a few hours. Everything should be back to normal then and science will march on once again. We appreciate your patience.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Here's David Weinberger's blog entry

Here's David Weinberger's blog entry for my talk at Connectivity 2002. According to David, the Blogger site was down most of this morning. I hope Ev figures out a way to make Blogger more reliable. It could be the Quicken or the Frontpage of a new market, but the window of opportunity won't be open forever.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Here is my presentation (PPT)

Here is my presentation (PPT) from Connectivity 2002.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

You can still see my

You can still see my office from the Empire State Building Webcam.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

MSNBC quoted me in a

MSNBC quoted me in a story yesterday about online communities and their relationship to Weblogs.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

David Weinberger is blogging the

David Weinberger is blogging the Connectivity 2002 conference live.


I'm sitting here watching Bob Frankston talk, with David stting in front of me taking notes (next to David Isenberg), while I put together my Powerpoint slides for later this morning. Another David (Burstein of DSL Prime) flew in on the redeye this morning from Vortex, bringing regards from Doc.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

I'm about to head to

I'm about to head to Boston for Connectivity 2002. One positive of a small baby is that getting up for those early morning flights is less of a challenge -- you're already up. Oh well, I didn't need that sleep anyway!

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 21, 2002

This report may have some

This report may have some useful numbers on the growth of WiFi and wireless LANs. Unfortunately, the full report costs $2,995, and In-Stat won't give me any summary data because they feel my company is a competitor.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Thanks, Doc! I'll be back

Thanks, Doc! I'll be back on the conference circuit before long. In fact, I'll be speaking at Connectivity 2002 in Boston tomorrow.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Eli helping daddy check his


Eli helping daddy check his email.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

New motto for life: "Choose

New motto for life: "Choose to be happy."

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 17, 2002

So Bertelsmann is buying Napster

So Bertelsmann is buying Napster after all....

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Revisionist history

Wired News: "Creativity -- and the economy -- thrive when copyrights are strong," said Robert Holleyman, president of the Business Software Alliance. "The DMCA is proof of that. It has been one of the central pillars supporting the growth of the Internet and the economy in general."

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Anyone know why RealNetworks is

Anyone know why RealNetworks is up 17% today, when most tech stocks are down? I don't see any news.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The blogosphere is a house

The blogosphere is a house of mirrors in every direction. Today's example is this paper on open spectrum from a researcher in Japan, which cites to my Release 1.0 article on the topic. I found it via Skywave, which sources Jock Gill. Remember in the early days of the Web, when we all used to go to Yahoo! (or another search engine) and surf along the link trails? Traipsing through blog-land is even more fun... and more useful. It promises to get even better when Nick Denton's new company, and others like it, launch.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

New AOL Time Warner CEO

New AOL Time Warner CEO Richard Parsons: "In the past 18 months or so, everything has changed." (From News.com) I hope he realizes that it's not just a different stock-market environment, but The End of an Error.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

I have an article in

I have an article in this month's Business 2.0 arguing that the real strength of Amazon and other leading B2C e-tailers is their software platforms. The piece was dumbed-down in the editorial process, which commonly happens when writing for monthly magazines. Such is life. Personally, I prefer the draft I gave them in February. What do you think?

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

I've got more photos of

I've got more photos of our son Eli up for those who are interested. These digital cameras are great!

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 16, 2002

I'm trying out Simon Fell's

I'm trying out Simon Fell's WordBlogger tool to post directly from Microsoft Word.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

That explains it. It's hard

That explains it. It's hard to make a good cup of espresso in New York because there's too little calcium in the water.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The FCC is Your Friend (No, Really)

Expect an order from the FCC today that improves the regulatory environment for WiFi unlicensed wireless services. The agency is expected to change its spread-spectrum rules to reduce the potential for interference between WiFi and Bluetooth. It's also expected to amend its rules be more friendly to high-speed variants of 802.11 in the 2.4 Ghz frequency band. (Thanks to my friends at Legg Mason for the tip.)


Everyone pays attention when the FCC considers action that would hurt new technologies. Assuming today's action is as expected, the agency should get credit for taking the initiative to foster unlicensed wireless.


Update: Here's the FCC news release on today's action.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Eli's arrival unfortunately coincided with

Eli's arrival unfortunately coincided with several conferences I was invited to speak at. I'm particularly bummed that I'm missing the O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference, which has been going on this week. Sounds like a great confluence of people and ideas. As usual, Doc, Cory, Dave and Dan are blogging it live.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Keith Teare, former CEO of

Keith Teare, former CEO of RealNames, pointed me to his new Weblog, where he explains how Microsoft effectively shut down his company. I assume most readers of this site have seen pointers to Keith's site elsewhere. If not, check it out. It's not often that you get such an insider view of these developments. I can only imagine what an analogous Napster Weblog would include....

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

It's Dead Now

Two years ago, I wrote a column about Napster which appeared in the Industry Standard with the headline, "It's Not Dead Yet." A federal court had just granted an injunction against Napster, which was thought to be on its last legs.


As I predicted, Napster wasn't done in 2000, because it and the music industry needed each other. Bertelsmann's investment was the surest indication of that fact. In the end, though, Napster fell victim to an enemy more powerful than the music industry: its own board.


This week, talks for Bertelsmann to acquire Napster collapsed, resulting in the company's CEO and founder resigning and making bankruptcy a near-certainty. Reportedly, the sticking point was investor Hummer-Winblad's insistence on a better price and/or indemnification from lawsuits. Napster wouldn't be at this point if the record industry hadn't dragged out licensing its catalog to the new, paid Napster service. But delays in that process were to be expected.


The old Napster was pure. Love it or hate it, you knew what it represented. Once it took venture money and an investment from a multinational conglomerate, Napster became just another dotcom startup struggling in a difficult environment. Its death says less than might be expected about the future of online music, and more about the challenges for any startup today.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 15, 2002

Radio Userland now has a

Radio Userland now has a built-in comments feature, something I've been waiting for. Let's see if I can get it to work.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Back in the office

After taking off about a week to be with my new son, I'm now back at work. Give me a little time for active posts to resume on the Werblog, since I've got a whole lotta catching up to do.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:31 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 7, 2002

I think Eli must be

I think Eli must be the youngest person in the world to have his own Weblog.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 6, 2002

Eli Alvin Werbach

Born: May 6, 2002, 2:42pm
8 lbs., 7 oz.


Mom, dad and son are all doing fine. Stay tuned for more details soon, including the Little W Weblog!

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 3, 2002

Benefits of decentralization

Thank goodness Radio (which I use to manage this Weblog) is a network-enabled desktop application, rather than a hosted Web-based one. Userland has been experiencing a major outage for the past two days, but it hasn't affected me at all.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

A short, yet strange, trip

This chart shows the daily closing price of the AMEX Internet Index since I joined EDventure Holdings in April 1998.


At the time, I suspected we were at the end of the Internet boom, which started with the 1995 Netscape IPO. I thought that as stock mania subsided, energy would shift to figuring out what had changed and how to build real businesses. If you look closely at the chart, you can see that I was right. Throw out the anomalous spike in the middle, and the pattern is unmistakable. Internet stock prices have been relatively calm over the four-year period. Maybe it was all just a dream....

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

CyberAtlas: According to a Jupiter

CyberAtlas: According to a Jupiter Media Metrix study, experienced users of P2P file-trading services are 41 percent more likely than the average online music fan to have increased their music spending levels. Still more evidence that, contrary to what the recording industry says, Napster and its ilk actually stimulate spending on CDs.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Netflix is a new addition

Netflix is a new addition to my dotcom survivor list. (Thanks Dave Hyndman!)

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

May 2, 2002

Dotcom survivors

I'm starting a list of dotcoms that seem to have weathered the crash of the past two years. These are Internet startups that are venture-funded, consumer-oriented, not yet public, enjoying healthy growth and profitable or nearly so. Conventional wisdom is that such a creature doesn't exist. Off the top of my head, the initial list is:



Who am I missing? Send me email with suggestions or comments. I'll put the list on the right side of my Weblog home page when it's long enough.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Media Technology Headline of 2004: Digital TV

Digital television was a big topic of discussion in the early '90s. There were grim warnings that we were falling behind Japan in the high-definition race, and that if the US government didn't give digital TV spectrum to broadcasters, free over-the-air television was doomed. Everyone involved knew that the plan that eventually emerged -- a gradual transition to digital broadcasting through 2006, at which point the broadcasters would return their analog spectrum -- was a fantasy. But the broadcasters are among the most powerful political lobbying forces in Washington, and they got their way.


Over the next several years, a spate of articles touted the remarkable clarity of HDTV programming. The computer industry battled the broadcasters over transmission standards. Manufacturers started building high-end sets capable of receiving HDTV broadcasts. Stations proudly announced the programming they were making available in high-definition format. And nothing really happened. The HDTV sets were so expensive, and the available programming so slim, that hardly anyone tuned in. Instead of HDTV, the revolutionary media technology of the '90s was the Internet.


Giving broadcasters prime digital TV spectrum, which could have provided ubiquitous broadband wireless Internet service or generated tens of billions of dollars at auction, was a terrible mistake. But it's too late to change the past. Let's take a look at the present.


Just as everyone has forgotten the overheated predictions about HDTV, it's finally starting to become real. Sales of digital TV sets increased 84 percent from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2002, according to the Consumer Electronics Association (I first saw this figure in Mark Anderson's Strategic News Service.) The industry projects 2 million sets sold in 2002, and 4 million in 2003. On the supply side, the major cable operators have agreed to accelerate carriage of high-definition channels, responding to a proposal from FCC Chairman Michael Powell.


Broadcast.com founder Mark Cuban is ahead of the curve on this one. While spending most of his time running the Dallas Mavericks, he quietly started a company called HDNet. It calls itself the "world's only national television network broadcasting all high-definition content," which includes a growing number of sporting events and other programming, currently via DirecTV satellite. It's still too early for HDNet to be taken seriously, but plenty of people laughed at ESPN, MTV and CNN in the early days too. Cuban won't make as much money on HDNet as he did when he sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo! for nearly $6 billion, but HDNet just may wind up being the most successful business he starts.


Meanwhile, the content industry is trying to kill the golden goose. Three-quarters of US broadcasters missed a recent deadline to start broadcasting in high definition format. And the broadcasters are pushing for draconian digital rights management solutions that would make those existing digital TV sets obsolete. EFF's excellent Consensus at Lawyerpoint Weblog documents the activities of the Broadcast Protection Discussion Group, which is defining standards for digital TV copy protection.


Broadcasters and content owners are right to be scared about digital TV. Digital technologies, by their nature, explode scarcities... and these industries are built on the exploitation of scarcities. But it will only take a few cracks for the dam to burst. TV will be delivered digitally, just as both wired and wireless phone service are today. It's a matter of when, not if.


If the copy protection issue doesn't slow things down too much, 2003 should be the year digital TV becomes more than a curiosity... and 2004 the year it starts to become a mainstream phenomenon. Interestingly, that's about the same trajectory as two other technologies that were also hyped too early: 3G wireless networks and interactive television (using next-generation set-top boxes that incorporate Tivo-like personal video recorder technology). Put a reminder in your calendars now.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The surprising thing about this

The surprising thing about this chart from a story on News.com is that Gator is the #2 digital wallet service, with 9.3 million registered users. (Actually, it's probably more than that. Gator claimed 10 million users back in December.) Gator hasn't made as much noise as other digital identity vendors, but it has become a gorilla in the space. The company isn't public, so I don't know its financial situation, but 10 million users should generate some aggregate data that advertisers find interesting.


I use Gator because it saves me time. I'm not thrilled with the intrusiveness of the popup ads it generates, and I'm concerned about the privacy implications, but so far the company hasn't done anything to push me over the edge. I'd be willing to pay for a digital wallet that doesn't have Gator's downsides, though so far I haven't found anything that works as well.

Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:42 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack