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January 31, 2003
VOIP from the Bell companies?
BellSouth is reselling Vonage's VOIP service for its DSL customers. This is fascinating. I suspect it was a business deal on the data side that the corporate mothership isn't fully aware of. It means that, in states where BellSouth has authorization to offer long-distance, you can buy BellSouth service for one price, or BellSouth over Vonage over BellSouth DSL service for a different price. Where BellSouth doesn't have long-distance authorization, I wonder if they are in violation by reselling the Vonage voice offering?
Where all this goes is that it's time for the FCC to take on the regulatory issues surrounding Internet telephony.
UPDATE -- BellSouth is shutting down the service. They must have realized what they were getting themselves into.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Continued fallout of the Internet bust
Wow. Brobeck, Phleger, and Harrison, a major national law firm that had many dotcom clients, is shutting down. You almost never see big firms like this go under, since companies need lawyers whether the economy is good or bad.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 30, 2003
More creative Tivo deals
News.com: "Beginning Monday, 20th Century Fox will offer an exclusive preview of its upcoming movie 'Daredevil' to TiVo customers. The promotion will extend to five movies throughout the year and potentially feature movie trailers, behind-the-scenes footage and interviews."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
VOIP stats
IDC:
"The overall market is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 45% to reach a revenue base of $15.1 billion by the year 2007," noted Tom Valovic, director of IDC's IP Telephony program. IDC is projecting the best growth in enterprise systems such as IP-PBXs. For this year, the current forecast shows a 66% increase in equipment sales to enterprises.
| WORLDWIDE IP TELEPHONY EQUIPMENT REVENUE, 2001–2007 ($M) | |||||||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Total | 1846 | 2398 | 3336 | 4945 | 7592 | 11356 | 15142 |
| Growth (%) | NA | 30% | 39% | 48% | 54% | 50% | 33% |
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
NewsFactor: Wireless LANs To Get
NewsFactor: Wireless LANs To Get Switch Support
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
NewsFactor: Wireless LANs To Get
NewsFactor: Wireless LANs To Get Switch Support
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
OK Guardian article on the
OK Guardian article on the business of blogging
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The last, best hope for licensed wireless broadband
Andy Seybold:
In my scenario, NextWave would fulfill its dream of a resalable nationwide network by using its spectrum to build out a CDMA 2000 1xEV-DO system optimized for high-speed IP data that would set the standard in the U.S. NextWave would lead the effort as the operator with major partners across many industry segments. All wireless carriers, ISPs, content providers that have an interest in broadband data services can resell this untethered last-mile network access.If things worked out right, this network could be up and running in a significant part of the U.S. potentially years ahead of any other truly broadband technology and it would set the bar for data services in the U.S.
Andy is right -- this would be a brilliant move on Nextwave's part. It's probably the only way the wireless industry can delay the victory of unlicensed broadband data services. It spite of (or because of) that, this scenario is pretty unlikely to happen. From the beginning, Nextwave has been focused on arbitraging the FCC spectrum auction regime, and now that they've won a big payoff, they won't suddenly get the vision thing.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
On the importance of blogs
Joi Ito: "Larry [Page of Google] said he thought that blogs were getting higher rankings because they were becoming a more important part of the Internet and implied that he felt the high rankings were fair. Cool."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 29, 2003
EE Times: Companies test prototype
EE Times: Companies test prototype wireless-sensor nets
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Where the Web services are
News.com is shocked, shocked to find that Web services are catching on for internal corporate IT integration. No ****, Sherlock. Of course, that's not the whole story. Wait about a year for the articles suddenly recognizing what's starting to happen around RSS and consumer Web services.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Beyond the browser
Dave Hyatt: "It should be possible to make an application for managing a large amount of information flow that is accessible to mainstream users." (via Jason Kottke)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Ross Mayfield: "Augmented Reality and
Ross Mayfield: "Augmented Reality and Moblogging are going to converge, the question is when."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 28, 2003
Is this any way to get competition?
Richard Epstein: "Before the 1996 [Telecom] Act was passed, I conducted a comprehensive review of its contents for Bell Atlantic (now Verizon) and concluded that this statute, unlike most others, actually had a coherent theme that promised some institutional success."
The "coherent theme" was that voluntarily negotiations between incubments and new entrants would lead to effective competition. This always struck me as an ideological fantasty of the conservative Newt Gingrich Congress. Neither side in the negotiations had real incentives to reach agreement. Today, Epstein admits that, "In retrospect, it was always an illusion that voluntary agreements could take place at all."
He goes on to conclude that because regulatory transitions are always perilous, we should stick with the non-competitive status quo or just let the monopolies keep their exclusive control over the network. Huh?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 6:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Fiber to the Home Council
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Dig-It, a new magazine/Website from
Dig-It, a new magazine/Website from a group of tech publishing veterans, has launched.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Dave Burstein of DSL Prime
Dave Burstein of DSL Prime is hinting of a deal between VOIP provider Vonage and Earthlink.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Link Hoewing of Verizon had
Link Hoewing of Verizon had an op-ed in the Boston Globe last weekend about broadband. This line stopped me: "Step back, and you can see the United States is recasting the Internet as a genuine multimedia platform...." It was meant as a positive statement of what could happen if the FCC further deregulates the Bells. Instead, it epitomizes what so many companies don't understand about the Net. They have never stopped yearning for the walled gardens of video dialtone or proprietary videotext services. If the broadband Net is turned into "multimedia", it will die the same death as all previous iterations of that vision.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Atheros: "Industry experts are predicting
Atheros: "Industry experts are predicting that 35% of all laptops or about 7.7 million will be wireless-enabled out of the box this year. This percentage is expected to rise to 60% in 2004 (~16.3M), and 90% by 2005 (25.2M)."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Japanese VOIP notes
Reuters: "Japanese electronics conglomerate NEC and telecoms equipment maker Oki Electric Industry said on Tuesday they would cooperate in offering internet protocol phone systems for corporate customers."
Richard Shockey: "I would also note the stunning numbers coming out of Yahoo Japan which reported a 67% increase in subscribers of their broadband service FOR THE QUARTER driven in part by the bundling of VoIP service at no additional charge with the DSL service..giving Yahoo a 30% market share for DSL in Japan."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
News.com: Telcos try to restrict
News.com: Telcos try to restrict VOIP companies' access to telephone numbers (via BoingBoing)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Here comes blog media
Red Herring publisher Tony Perkins has launched Always On Network, a weblog-centric tech media company. (via Ross Mayfield) From what's there so far, it has great potential. I'm excited to see commercial weblog media companies start to emerge. Nick Denton's collection of sites was the first, and existing sites such as Salon and MSNBC are now using blogs to enhance their offerings.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
New York Times: Hybrid Cars
New York Times: Hybrid Cars Are Catching On
According to the article, Toyota sold more than 20,000 of its Prius gas-electric hybrids last year. With battery-powered cars looking like a dead-end and fuel cells still well too expensive (the article estimates $700,000 today), hybrids look to be the dominant transitional technology for automobiles. One side benefit is that hybrids require sophisticated electronic sensors to monitor the engine and transfer power. Once that infrastructure is built into the car, it can become a platform for other functions.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 27, 2003
Wireless backhaul
802.11 Planet: "Navini and Pronto recently announced an initiative to market a joint solution to hotspot network operators, integrating Navini's second-generation wide area fixed wireless access networks and Pronto's turnkey (or outsourced) hotspot systems."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Tivos for everyone!
AllNetDevices: "By 2008, ABI predicts that 68 percent of the 72.5 million STBs shipped will have PVR capabilities, compared with 11 percent in 2002."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Email problems
I've only been getting some of the email sent to me the past few days (since at least Thursday). I think I've fixed the problem, but I'm still not sure. If you sent me something and haven't heard back, please write again.
UPDATE: I've recovered the missing messages, and everything seems to be working fine now.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Traffic Waves (via Smart Mobs)
Traffic Waves (via Smart Mobs)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Perils of pervasive connectivity
Baltimore Sun: "Twelve University of Maryland undergraduates have been accused of using Web-equipped cell phones or handheld organizers to cheat on a business school final exam last month, according to the school's student-run Honor Council."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:42 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 24, 2003
Latest WiFi stats
In hard numbers, ABI forecasts that the WLAN industry will generate $1.67 billion in total revenue through the end of this year. Dual-band equipment, meanwhile, will make up 53 percent of aggregate WLAN equipment revenue by 2005, and the total WLAN nodes shipped will grow from 23.38 million this year to 63.97 million in 2008, ABI predicts.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Let's call the whole thing off?
Let me get this straight. President Bush's two major initiatives right now are a "stimulus plan" based on the theory that propping up the stock market is the best thing for the economy, and a forthcoming war in Iraq that is tanking the stock market.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Crash of the Titans
Broadcom and E*Trade both lost their CEOs this week. In the case of Broadcom's Henry Nicholas, personal reasons (trying to save his marriage) were the immediate motivation, but the company's rocky performance must have been a factor. First it was the imperial CEOs who engaged in financial shenanigans or criminal arrogance (Joe Nacchio, Jean-Marie Messier), now it's the ones who are symbols of the bygone era of irrational exuberance.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
AT&T Voice over IP petition
FCC Public Notice: "On October 18, 2002, AT&T Corp. (AT&T) filed a Petition for Declaratory Ruling that AT&T's Phone-to-Phone IP Telephony Services are Exempt from Access Charges."
This is the petition referenced in today's Wall Street Journal. Reply comments were due today. The comments can be viewed here. This is an important proceeding. I suspect the FCC will respond by issuing a notice of proposed rulemaking, rather than going directly to a declaratory ruling.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
With ECFS Express, the FCC
With ECFS Express, the FCC is making it easier for the public to file comments on proceedings of particular interest. I remember how much effort it took us to get the original Web-based comment filing system adopted. It's a good sign that the FCC is affirmatively encouraging public participation, at a time when many parts of the federal government are moving toward greater secrecy.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
John Muleta to head FCC
John Muleta to head FCC Wireless Bureau. I worked with John during his previous stint at the FCC. He's very smart and tech-savvy. I don't know what his views are on spectrum policy, but there is reason to believe he may be supportive of open spectrum.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Wrong Policy for the Right Reasons?
USA Today: FCC plan could help keep high-speed Net prices low
It's hard to translate back from the dumbed-down explanations in this article, but it seems that the FCC is moving towards treating competitive broadband data services more favorably than competitive local voice services. The draft they are considering apparently leaves in place "line sharing" which allows companies such as Covad to offer DSL at low rates, while phasing out the "UNE-P" rules that allow WorldCom and AT&T to do the same.
I can see the value of this approach, on both legal and policy grounds. Broadband is critical to the future of communications, and competition is critical to the future of broadband. The danger is that the FCC will do exactly what Chairman Powell (wisely, I think) wants to avoid: let the end justify the means.
For many years the FCC has put in place and preserved a set of rules that have the effect of promoting data services. Make no mistake, I think this is a wonderful outcome. Given the political and regulatory situation in the late-1990s, when Internet services were truly nascent, it was absolutely the right approach to follow. But you can't build a solid building on rickety foundations. At some point the FCC has to get to a system that is internally consistent. That means revolutionary change in the regulatory structure.
I'm worried that, by pursuing a feel-good policy of promoting data-centric services, the FCC is making the same mistake it did when it implemented the 1996 Telecom Act. Rightly or wrongly, Wall Street got the message that the new CLECs and DLECs would not be allowed to fail, so they shoveled money into new competitors. We all know the result: a spectacular crash.
It's happening again. The Wall Street Journal has a piece today about IP telephony, talking about the coming conflict over whether to impose traditional telecom regulation. All the companies and analysts quoted said the FCC has a special policy to promote Internet telephony. As one of the primary authors of the 1998 FCC report to Congress that defined the current policy, I know what they are talking about. But they are assuming too much. The FCC has wisely held off figuring out how to integrate IP telephony into its regulatory structure, but that day of reckoning will come. If nothing else, the courts will force the FCC into it. As we saw with the 1996 Act, rulemaking by the judiciary involves far more time, uncertainty, and confusion than rulemaking by the FCC.
If I were FCC Chairman Michael Powell, I would start with the assumption that by 2010, everything about communications policy is going to change, and work backwards. It will change through some combination of a new Telecom Act, spectrum reform, and new techologies undermining the existing industry structure. Winning the last war isn't going to help.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The last 300 feet
Glenn Fleishman (paraphrasing a Washington Post article): "100,000 hot spots would provide about the same big-city ubiquity as current cell coverage. I'd buy that. If Vivato works out, that 100K number might go down substantially or be deployed more quickly."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Joi Ito: "We need to
Joi Ito: "We need to focus on the basic cause of the problems which we have identified as a dysfuctional democracy and a lack of diversity."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Keep your eye on the DRM
New York Times: Liquid Audio Gets a Buyer for Its Assets
This deal looks eerily similar to Sony and Philips purchasing Intertrust, another digital rights managememt (DRM) pioneer that had nothing left but its technology and patents. Like it or not, the music industry is moving forward on digital distribution using strong DRM. Its first attempt was a standard, SDMI, which failed in the marketplace. The second wave is licensing content to MusicNet, PressPlay, and Listen.com, with mixed results. Don't be surprised if Liquid Audio and Intertrust's technology (with some RealNetworks and/or Microsoft DRM possibly mixed in) become the second coming of SDMI, this time with broad backing from industry. The consumer electronics vendors hate government mandates, but they will gladly adopt industry standard DRM that they don't think is too onerous on users.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Wireless stats
Some data points from CS First Boston:
- Over 15 million camera phones have been sold in Japan.
- Japan has 59 million wireless data subscribers (out of 79 million), with iMode the leading provider at 36 million.
- India is at the forefront of wireless local loop by deploying flat-rate CDMA 1x services.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 23, 2003
Internet.com: "Surprisingly, DealTime ranked as
Internet.com: "Surprisingly, DealTime ranked as the third most popular online site in the category of stand-alone Web shopping domains throughout December 2002, according to measurement and analysis firm comScore Networks, trailing only Amazon.com (which has a paid relationship with DealTime) and walmart.com. comScore doesn't count eBay, AOL, Yahoo or MSN as stand-alone shopping sites."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Wired News: "The financial services
Wired News: "The financial services provider Charles Schwab, meanwhile, is exploring the use of grid technology for data analysis. The company says it has the largest supercomputer of any commercial company in the world, and the 49th biggest overall."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
News.com: "Disagreement over intellectual property
News.com: "Disagreement over intellectual property issues could derail efforts to create new Web services standards."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
BBC: "The UK Government has
BBC: "The UK Government has offered another boost for broadband, opening up more of the airwaves for faster net services."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
PC Home Networking On the Rise
Internet.com: "The study found that almost 61 percent of broadband homes with a PC colocated with their primary home entertainment system have a home network in place. According to Greeson, out of 6,000 broadband users and 4,800 dial-up users, between 6-8 percent of the survey's respondents said they have either a stereo or television connected to their PC, indicating a strong inclination to network the primary household PC with legacy home entertainment equipment."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
News.com: "We're not going to
News.com: "We're not going to see huge narrowband market growth from MSN," Visse said. "We're going to concentrate on narrowing the loss that MSN is incurring today and build out what we think will be a profitable broadband business."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
InternetNews: "According to Websense, the
InternetNews: "According to Websense, the number of peer-to-peer file sharing Web pages has increased by more than 300 percent in the last 12 months. Websense also reported that there are more than 130 peer-to-peer applications currently available online, among them KaZaa and Grokster."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
EE Times: "A new lobbying
EE Times: "A new lobbying group with heavy backing from the U.S. electronics industry is battling Hollywood over whether government-mandated technology standards are the best way to protect digital content."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Aruba Wireless Networks: WLAN market
Aruba Wireless Networks: WLAN market evolution
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
USA Today: Microsoft loses showdown
USA Today: Microsoft loses showdown in Houston
The city of Houston, TX is shifting from Office to SimDesk, an Internet-based service.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Economist: "But of all
The Economist: "But of all these issues, the copyright battle is becoming one of the most urgent, and bitterly fought, because it could yet determine the future character of cyberspace itself."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Pocket Presence: another voice over
Pocket Presence: another voice over WiFi to PDA company (via Clay Shirky)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 1:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
IEEE CommsDesign: Intel tips plans
IEEE CommsDesign: Intel tips plans for reconfigurable radio architecture
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Ronpin on BroadbandReport: Broadband "CoGeneration"
Ronpin on BroadbandReport: Broadband "CoGeneration" Policy Needed (via David Isenberg)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Taking a deep breath...
The flurry of short entries today are my way of catching up after being out of town visiting family for a few days. Now, back to work....
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Time Europe article on young
Time Europe article on young Europeans at Davos
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Conference economics
New York Times: "[For the World Economic Forum] Switzerland is mounting its biggest ever security operation at a cost of some $10 million, equivalent to around $5,000 per delegate."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Vonage now has 10,000 subscribers
Vonage now has 10,000 subscribers (in 10 months) in 40 cities, and is completing 100,000 calls per day.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
eWeek: Microsoft buying PlaceWare
eWeek: Microsoft buying PlaceWare
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
David Weinberger: Why Open Spectrum
David Weinberger: Why Open Spectrum Matters: The End of the Broadcast Nation
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Airshare.org - Wi-Fi and WLAN
Airshare.org - Wi-Fi and WLAN Wireless Community Resource
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
1,500 WISPs
InStat (via Glenn Fleishman): "The high-tech market research firm estimates that there are 1,500 - 1,800 license-exempt WISPs in the US and worldwide end user revenues generated from infrastructure in the license-exempt WISP market are forecasted to be $265.2 million for 2002."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Trepia: your instant Wi-Fi community
Trepia: your instant Wi-Fi community
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
John Patrick: "Once Quicken, TurboTax,
John Patrick: "Once Quicken, TurboTax, Dreamweaver, Eudora and a few other key applications find there way to Linux, many people will jump ship in a hurry."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Joi Ito on Sony
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Meshbox
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Steven Levy article in Newsweek
Steven Levy article in Newsweek on Sony
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
BusinessWeek on big guys getting
BusinessWeek on big guys getting into WiFi in Europe
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:39 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Doc on Hollywood vs. Consumer Electronics
Semi-speaking of which, a lot of the blinkage lately has been around Free (and/or Open) Media Management, a conversation involving Marc, Harold, Phil, Matt and others. Interesting stuff.Add smart mobs, moblogging, Joi's many connections (I love following all the cool folks trekking like Pilgrims to Japan), and the stuff Sony is up to, and I get a sense that there's a major change coming to everything touched by consumer electronics. The sides being taken lately by the Consumer Electronics Association are especially interesting. The break between the consumer electronics industry and Hollywood is wider than it looks, and will swell to oceanic dimensions as the differences in actual market involvement — conversations, again — become more extreme.
Dig this: the CEA supported Eldred, which, had it won, would have delivered a huge crater to Hollywood. Here's Gary Shapiro, president & CEO of the CEA, on the Eldred decision:
It is simply unfair that companies who made their fortune taking works in the public domain and reformatting them for new technology are now preventing others from following the same business model... Congress took from the public and gave to Disney. And while most Justices recognized this was horrible public policy they also chose to find it Constitutional.For decades the consumer electronics business was notoriously detached from its final customers (their actual customers were usually retailers such as Circuit City). For sport I used to write to the feedback link on Sony's Web site, just to see how lifeless the response would be. The few responses I received basically all said "go away." Now I look at the Sony feedback page, and I get the feeling that they're finally taking some good advice.
Hollywood isn't. That's why they'll lose.
Hmm... maybe they should change that label from Consumer Electronics to Smart Mob Electonics.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 17, 2003
Spam -- it's not just for breakfast any more
News.com: "The Spam Conference, held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was originally intended to be an informal gathering of 30 people or so. But more than 500 registered to discuss and debate the best way to battle the problem."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Wifi Caravan
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Reportedly, the Reuters story reporting
Reportedly, the Reuters story reporting that China was blocking BlogSpot helped influence the Chinese government to end the blockage. (From DynaWeb, via Joi Ito)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
I'm thinking.
I'm thinking.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 16, 2003
Yahoo, Broadband, and Open Access
"Sometime this year, if you are a Yahoo user, you will have the ability to be part of Yahoo broadband all over the country," Terry S. Semel, Yahoo's chief executive, said in an interview yesterday.In particular, he said that cable companies, which until now have tried to promote their own broadband services, are now preparing to open their networks to a variety of offerings. Yahoo, he said, will compete with America Online, Microsoft and EarthLink in providing broadband services over cable. Mr. Semel said Yahoo would explain its broadband strategy at a meeting with investors next month.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
David Galbraith: "The three most
David Galbraith: "The three most successful eCommerce sites in terms of number of paid subscribers are Classmates, Match.com and Ancestry.com - this is not surprising, they are all about networks of people and so is the Internet." (via Evhead)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
New York Times: Bouncing Signals
New York Times: Bouncing Signals Push the Limits of Bandwidth
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Yahoo! News: Motorola Leads Converged-Wireless
Yahoo! News: Motorola Leads Converged-Wireless Alliance
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 15, 2003
NewsFactor: "Linux will emerge as
NewsFactor: "Linux will emerge as the dominant operating system in corporate data centers, according to a new study by Goldman Sachs."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
What's Good for Disney is Good for....
The NPR coverage of the Eldred decision just now appropriately led with, "A big win for Disney at the Supreme Court." The majority opinion was all about Congressional authority and original intent, but the fight is really about a giveaway to one interest group.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Sony gets open standards religion
EE Times: "Ando warned the assembled consumer electronics industry representatives that broadband interconnectivity is a tsunami that could sweep them away unless they work together on industry-wide open standards."
Ando, who is Sony's President (and CEO-in-training), said that major consumer electronics vendors such as LG, Philips, and Samsung are joining with it in an initiative to build an open Linux-based operating system for broadband home media. This could be big news. Sony licensed Tivo's software, which runs on Linux, about a year ago, though it's not clear if that's part of this effort.
Sony has traditionally supported semi-proprietary standards like MiniDisc, Betamax, MemoryStick and FireWire. Presumably the Linux-based platform will be a private industry standard that other companies can sign up to, rather than one driven by an open standards body like the IEEE or IETF. Building on Linux is a direct challenge to Microsoft, which is what makes the announcement so interesting.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Global Internet Project: "Leading Internet
Global Internet Project: "Leading Internet experts at a spam workshop hosted by The Global Internet Project (GIP) expressed optimism that a multi-faceted approach spearheaded by Internet service providers, technology companies and government increasingly provides Internet users with effective tools to cope with the growing use of spam. The Group warned against new legislation to tackle the problem."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
They still don't get it
Yahoo! News: "Internet performance measurement company Keynote Systems Inc. says in its study that 7.5 percent of all short text messages sent between wireless telephone companies [in the US] are lost."
So, years after text messaging become absolutely huge in Europe in Japan, US wireless carriers are still struggling to make it work across their networks.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Music and tech industry groups agree on digital content protection
AP: "The leading trade associations for the music and technology industries, which have been at loggerheads over consumers downloading songs on the Internet, have negotiated a compromise they contend will protect copyrights on movies and music without new government involvement."
The agreement was among the RIAA and two tech trade groups, the Business Software Alliance and the Computer Systems Policy Project. Basically the tech companies agreed to support broad implementation of digital rights management in return for the RIAA opposing legislative mandates to require copy protection. The movie industry wasn't part of the agreement, and apparently will continue to push for legal requirements.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
In a 7-2, vote, the
In a 7-2, vote, the Supreme Court just rejected the challenge led by Larry Lessig to the Sonny Bono copyright extension. This is what most experts predicted, but it's still disappointing.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
"A Huge Battle is Shaping Up"
First of all, the Chairman, Powell, whom everybody and especially the press think they have pinned down (hard line conservative, Republican, 'let the marketplace only decide' big business buddy) has had an technological epiphany over the last year. Now he is the strongest advocate in Washington, with immense power to make it happen (he only needs two other votes on the 5 person commission) of 'more spectrum' for grass roots digitial (802.whatever) wireless, cutting across and sharing spectrum hitherto virtually 'owned' by corporate America (television, radio), and letting *technological advances* (faster, smarter, chips, very advanced software, new concepts of 'regulating' like regulating the use of TIME! and not just power or frequency, the historical things regulated, and to concentrate on the design and regulation of 'recievers' more than 'transmitters' as a way to deal with interference - making thousands of legacy radio systems obsolete in the blink of an eye.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
More from Alan Reiter on
More from Alan Reiter on Microsoft's connected watches.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Internet Topic Exchange: "This
The Internet Topic Exchange: "This is the first public implementation of the Ridiculously Easy Group Forming concept. It's a central server to host TrackBack-powered channels. It's designed to let anyone effortlessly create a channel to archive pointers to information on a given topic."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The broadband changeover is happening
+Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Two more anti-spam tools
Spamnix, which works in Eudora (I'm going to try it out).
SpamSubtract, from the folks who brought you the AdSubtract pop-up blocking utility.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Three nines of spam-fighting accuracy?
Bill Yerazunis says his CRM114 Bayesian spam filter offers 99.9% accuracy. I'm still skeptical that any automated spam filter will be a silver bullet, because the spammers will use countermeasures to evade any filtering mechanism that is widely deployed. But the level of accuracy the Bayesian filters provide is definitely an improvement.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 14, 2003
I'm in Washington DC for
I'm in Washington DC for two conferences. The first one (yesterday) was filled with military people... so no WiFi. Hopefully the one today will offer better connectivity.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 13, 2003
Daily Wireless: It will cost
Daily Wireless: It will cost around $50,000 to achieve 100Mbps of throughput over a 360-degree area under four square miles according to Phil Belanger, Vivato's VP of Marketing.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 11, 2003
A great photo
David Weinberger: The Problem with Metadata (via Dave Winer)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 10, 2003
Tivo to launch home networking
Tivo to launch home networking software
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Alan Reiter points out that
Alan Reiter points out that the FM technology of Microsoft's new wireless watches was tried 20 years ago... and was a complete failure.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
NTIA Roundtable on Internet Telephony
NTIA Roundtable on Internet Telephony -- February 12, 2003
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Sony President Kunitake Ando: "TV,
Sony President Kunitake Ando: "TV, the champion of the non-PC world, is about to be reborn as the center of broadband entertainment."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Reuters: Handspring Wants to Work
Reuters: Handspring Wants to Work with RIM
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Microsoft says it has sold
Microsoft says it has sold 250,000 XBox live kits for its online gaming service since its November 15 launch, double its stated expectations.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
TV producers and advertisers finally start to get creative
A leading television producer and two major advertisers have joined forces to present a live variety show with no commercial interruptions. Instead, the advertising messages will be incorporated into the show....
The experiment reflects growing anxiety among many advertisers and network executives about the rise of personal video recorders, like TiVo's, which make it easy for viewers to skip commercials.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
RealNetworks has announced Helix DRM,
RealNetworks has announced Helix DRM, its digital rights management software that operates on both "Internet" and "standards-based" formats (i.e. RealAudio/Video as well as MPEG-4 and MP3, but not, of course, Windows Media). I wonder if Real waited to release this until the Intertrust patent issue was out of the way.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:09 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
LA Times: "A recent survey
LA Times: "A recent survey by Parks Associates, a research firm that specializes in home networking, found that half of the consumers with Internet access at home were interested in connecting their computers to their stereos and TV sets."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Radio radio
There is no perfect wireless technology. The laws of physics cause different types of transmissions, using different spectrum, in different areas, to behave in different ways. And any wireless transmission must take into account all other existing transmissions, because they share the same air. That's why, for all the excitement about WiFi, it won't be the One Wireless Technology to Rule Them All. It's also why software-defined radio is important, because it means fewer devices can handle more transmission technologies. In the meantime, it's interesting to see the patchwork that is developing. Microsoft's decision to use the FM radio spectrum for data transmissions to its SPOT watches is the latest example.
The story isn't all that different from wired networking. There are many different networking protocols, such as X.25, IPX, Ethernet, and frame relay, which do different things well. The Internet came along and changed the world not because it replaced that diversity with something uniform, but because it embraced it. TCP/IP is the lowest common denominator that lets all the other protocols interoperate seamlessly.
The integration of many wireless technologies, mostly but not exclusively unlicensed, into an uber-network is inevitable. But the big question mark is how that integration will proceed. Will it be through open protocols, such as the GNU Radio project, or through proprietary routing and network discovery software in devices such as PCs, smart phones, and residential gateways? With the announcement this week of Microsoft's SPOT devices and Apple's 802.11g/Bluetooth laptop, the battle is joined. But where is the technical community? The Internet Engineering Task Force and the World Wide Web Consortium, the two leading open standards bodies for the Net, are oriented toward software rather than wireless technologies. And the wireless-oriented groups such as the IEEE tend to focus on specific technologies such as 802.11. Perhaps we need a new kind of standards body for the new kind of network that is emerging.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Cory Doctorow's science fiction novel,
Cory Doctorow's science fiction novel, Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom, is finally out. And he's making the electronic version available freely online through a Creative Commons license. Gotta check it out!
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
ICANN Fifth Status Report to
ICANN Fifth Status Report to the US Department of Commerce
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 8:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 9, 2003
Political rhetoric
First the Republicans, circa 1980, figured out that tax cuts are a sure winner in most political debates. In an era when government is distrusted, it's hard to argue against reducing the amount of money people pay in taxes. Finally, in the 1990s, the Democrats under Clinton found response: the "richest one percent". A significant majority of US voters think they are in the middle class, so saying that tax cuts go to the rich is a persuasive argument that you won't benefit. It took a while, but now the Republicans have a rhetorical counter: "class warfare". Who could be for that?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 6:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Dave's new gig
Dave Winer: "I've been offered a fellowship at the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard Law School, and have, of course, accepted." Congratulations, and good luck!
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
WiFi hotspot branding
802.11 Planet: "The Wi-Fi Alliance is launching a new program starting today to create a global brand for easier recognition of public access hotspots."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 5:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Gerry Faulhaber: Whether or not
Whether or not the telephone industry is a natural monopoly is an empirical question: does it exhibit cost subadditivity? If it does, then it's a natural monopoly; if it does not, then it isn't. But the validity of the concept does not depend upon whether or not the telephone biz has it. Many have argued it isn't (ncluding me). But be very clear: if it is not a natural monopoly, then there is no economic reason to regulate it. We need only open the market to competition and bad behavior will be punished by aggressive entry. Natural monopoly was the sole economic reason the industry was regulated in the first place. If it isn't a monopoly, then good-bye FCC and state regulators.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Korean broadband stats
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Jeremy Allaire: "[Will] weblogging as
Jeremy Allaire: "[Will] weblogging as we know it will truly become a mainstream form of personal communications and sharing, rather than it's current perceived niche as form of personal or independent Internet journalism."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Alan Reiter, following a link
Alan Reiter, following a link from Dave Winer, comments on NewBay's moblogging service. The moblogging meme seems to have taken off even faster than warchalking!
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The next focus
Joi Ito: "We all know that the network should be stupid. Network providers will be a basic utility like electricity, but they'll still make money if they stick to the network. Where is the next focus? In the hardware, content and tools."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Clay Shirky: Customer-owned Networks: ZapMail
Clay Shirky: Customer-owned Networks: ZapMail and the Telecommunications Industry
Clay was going to give a version of this talk at Supernova but his flight was cancelled. I'm glad he published it. His point about the difference between products and services in communications is dead on.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Glooing together home media
Check out glooLabs. This is a new invention/operating system/protocol/device inspired by something I invented one day in the shower.In a nutshell, devices using the gloo technology are able to use a wifi wireless network to grab music (or other content) from your computer and play it through your stereo (or whatever).
So... in the short term, if you've got a bunch of music on your Mac, you can use a powerful remote control (just jazz? just Coltrane? just songs from last week?) and play it on your stereo. In the long run, because the protocol is open, developers will come up with ways to synch or program or who knows what.
I'm pretty excited that something I helped dream up is now a real live product, and I also believe that this is a major step forward for anybody who's interested in how the digital home shapes up--smart devices using dumb networks and open systems.
Seth is right -- this is very cool. I've thought for a while that getting MP3 audio onto home stereos would be an early killer app for what would become a huge home media market. It's nice to see the products starting to happen.UPDATE: HP is getting into the act as well. (from Marc Canter)
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
John Patrick: "I am on
John Patrick: "I am on my way to Honolulu for the Global Internet Project meeting. The focus of the meeting will be spam."
Good to see GIP making this issue a focus. I look forward to hearing what they come up with.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Voice over WiFi
The Guardian: Sharp and NTT DoCoMo to trial voice over IP from PDAs to WiFi hotspots. Sharp says that if the trial is successful, it plans to roll out a broader commercial service in Japan this Spring. Voice over WiFi, first sighted last year with TeleSym's launch at Demo, is gathering steam even faster than I expected. Probably before the end of 2003, or next year at the latest, we'll see the Vonage of this space in the US -- a pioneer in delivering real commercial service.
Connecting to a hotspot network doesn't give you ubiquitous connectivity, though the mesh of access points will be dense enough to make the service viable at the right price. As I've written before, wireless PBXs in offices and corporate campuses are one sweet spot. But there are other intriguing opportunities. What if Starbucks sold you a phone card good for nationwide wireless calling at 2 cents per minute, with one catch -- you had to make the call from a Starbucks? How many people who had some inkling to grab a cup of coffee anyway would take advantage of the offer?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Give Larry a Hand
Larry Lessig is looking for help on two questions for the book he's working on.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 8, 2003
Missing in action
Is it just me, or is the US Department of Commerce Office of Technology Administration Website ("The Federal Government's Portal to Technology") offline?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 7, 2003
UPS wireless LAN announcement
ThinkMobile: "UPS plans to eventually transmit data to 15,000 access points in 1,700 hubs." The company claims this is the largest wireless LAN deployment ever... though by the time it's completed in 2004, who knows? Interesting that UPS is using both WiFi and Bluetooth. Contrary to popular belief, these aren't competing technologies. Bluetooth is great when what you want to do is replace wires (which is what UPS is using it for). WiFi can't touch its low power consumption and ad hoc peer-to-peer proximity connectivity. But WiFi is the technology of choice for high-bandwidth local-area (vs. personal-area) communications. Thankfully, both technologies are unlicensed, and are getting cheaper by the month.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
FCC broadband stats
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
A new telecom experiment, but not the one that matters
The past seven years have been an experiment in reforming the US telecommunications industry. By most measures, that experiment has been a grand failure. The industry is in shambles, with one bankruptcy after another. The promised local competition and new services have been slow to emerge.
There are two possible interpretations. One is that the government hasn't gone far enough in promoting competition; the other is that it went too far. For the most part, FCC Chairman Michael Powell believes the second interpretation. For two years, he has signaled that he wanted to eliminate some of the rules requiring local phone companies to open their networks to competitors. Now, if press reports are to be believed, the FCC is about to act on this initiative.
I'm one of those who believes that competition failed to materialize largely because incumbents blocked it, not because telecom is a "natural monopoly" or because the government created an un-economic market environment. But I sympathize with Powell's viewpoint. A "damn the torpedoes" approach is hard to justify, and I'm skeptical the government could beat more blood out of the Bell Company stones even if it tried its hardest. Whatever was the right answer in 1996, a different approach is called for in 2003.
Chairman Powell is beginning down the path of a new experiment. The questionable assumption last time was that imcumbents would open their networks to competitors. This time, it's that removing those requirements will spur incumbents to invest and compete. If that's the sole thrust of FCC policies, we'll look back in 2010 to a story of failure similar to what we see today.
The only way out is with real competition. And the only way to have real competition, given today's conditions, is through new platforms. With widepsread fiber to the curb deployments seemingly at least a decade off, there are only three realistic possibilities: cable, wireless, and voice over IP. And cable will only be energized in telephony if it faces the other two new competitors; otherwise it will be content to divide up the market with the Bells.
So the key to telecom salvation lies in wireless and voice-over-IP in the last mile. Both require enlighted regulatory policies. The government must free the spectrum for unlicensed technologies, and must provide clarity to enable voice-over-IP communications to ride on third-party broadband networks. So far, Powell's FCC has suggested that it might move on the former, and has said nothing on the latter.
The unbunbling rules are the site of all the sound and fury, generating huge lobbying expenditures and editorial ink. But in the long run, they don't matter. The real action is elsewhere. A smart FCC would use the unbundling battle as a smoke screen to move forward in the other two areas.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Network Magazine: Unwiring the Last
Network Magazine: Unwiring the Last Mile
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 11:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Broadband endgame
Larry Lessig: "As cable companies continue to increase the cost of broadband service, and as telcom monopolies are strengthened by changes in FCC policy, it is now absolutely clear what the broadband endgame will be in the US: wireless." Amen to that.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Getting the broadband price right
"DSL subscriber growth is largely determined by price." ... The direct cost to a telco providing service in volume is $12-20 per month, including a return on the DSLAM and other capital cost. The profitable competitive price for DSL and cable is between $25 & $35. $40 may be the monopolist optimum, which is how Comcast and SBC are calculating it. My best guess is that $30-35 is better, even for a monopolist, because demand will grow, but that's a very hard one to prove. Gary Betty of Earthlink tells me his market research says half the U.S. dialup users would switch within the year if the price were $30.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 6, 2003
Digital campaigning
Apparently, new South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun used the Net and mobile messaging as integral elements of his successful campaign. Cyberspace has had little effect on US elections so far. I wonder if 2004 will be the turning point?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 3:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The anti-spam market heats up
Network Associates is buying Deersoft, which makes the commercial version of the popular SpamAssassin anti-spam tool.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 2:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
USA Today: Spam costs U.S.
USA Today: Spam costs U.S. corporations $8.9 billion per year
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
G whiz?
Apple is betting on the 802.11g wireless standard in a mysterious new product is is about to announce. If history plays out the way it did with 802.11b (the original WiFi), the rest of the industry will follow. 802.11g is a higher-speed technology that is backward-compatible with 802.11b, in contrast to 802.11a, which operates in different frequencies.
UPDATE: This article on 802.11 Planet fleshes out the WiFi standards battle.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The national pastime
Now that the owners and players have colluded to destroy baseball, and basketball has devolved into a branch of hip-hop music, football is America's national sport. And this past weekend was a dream for football fans. On Saturday, two shocking blowouts. On Sunday, two even more shocking comebacks. You gotta love it.
My team, the Philadelphia Eagles, plays Saturday against Atlanta. Until we go to war, the Eagles are the biggest story in the Philly media. They haven't won the NFL championship in 42 years, and haven't been in the Superbowl in 22. Could this be the year?
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
More voice over IP data
The mainstream press is picking up on the voice over IP story. Some stats from the New York Times:
"A recent survey by the Mitsubishi Research Institute showed that more than 40 percent of Japanese companies planned to begin using Internet calling in the next few years.Internet calling currently accounts for more than 10 percent of international calling traffic, with about 18 billion minutes worldwide, up from 9.9 billion minutes at the end of 2001, according to the research firm Telegeography."
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Bay Area Woes
Some interesting stats from an article in the New York Times:
- 40,000 people have left Silicon Valley in the last year to find work elsewhere. My sense is that number is low, if you add in people who worked in the Valley but lived in San Francisco.
- The median home price in the Bay Area is still $540,000, meaning that only 18 percent of the population can afford to buy a home.
- The state of California took in $17 billion in taxes from capital gains and exercise of stock options in 2000, but only $5 billion in 2002.
The Bay Area is still a great place to live in many ways, and an engine of the tech industry. But its problems won't go away with a few tech IPOs.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
A plan that won't pay dividends
New York Times: Bush Stimulus Proposal to Eliminate Taxes on Dividends
For the past year, there has been active discussion about "New Economy" companies like Microsoft and Cisco paying little or no dividends but give out huge amounts of stock options. With the collapse of the Internet stock bubble, there have been calls to treat options as expenses, and pressure from some institutional shareholders for these companies to institute dividends rather than sit on huge piles of cash.
The Bush administration has apparently decided to go after the dividend side of the equation. They seem to think that eliminating the tax will lead companies to pay out more in dividends, which will juice the stock market. Leaving aside the question of how "economic stimulus" is now defined as "higher stock prices", it's hard to see how this would happen. New economy companies pay little in dividends because they believe they can make better use of the cash than their shareholders. Investors may be wrong in accepting this rationale, but cutting taxes for those investors won't change the way the companies think.
The Bush economic team has as its reference points Old Economy companies like Alcoa and CSX, where its two Treasury Secretaries came from. They seem to think that if companies go back to that model, everything will be OK. It ain't gonna happen. If the objective is to challenge the late-1990s financial model, the way to do it is to require expensing of stock options. Sure, double taxing of dividends is a distortion, but so is treating stock options as inhernetly valueless when granted.
Maybe expensing options isn't the right approach. There are good arguments against it. The real question is whether we take the opportunity created by Enron, Worldcom, and other financial scandals to take a stand against financial chicanery. Instead, we have an administration trying to turn dishonesty about its economic policies into an art form. All the emphasis is on political calculations and how to "sell" policies, rather than on the underlying economics.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 9:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 3, 2003
Adventures in networking
OK, so I've now got my Internet connection coming in through a cable modem, hooking into a WiFi access point, over the airwaves through two floors of my house and laterally about sixty feet, into a WiFi/USB adapter, into a USB hub, into a USB/cardbus adapter, and finally into my laptop. Last time I checked I was getting throughput of about 750 kbps downstream, which is pretty darned good.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Pretty good overview in the
Pretty good overview in the Washington Post of upcoming FCC decisions that could change the regulatory environment for communications and Internet infrastructure.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 4:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
New York Times article on
New York Times article on Vanu Bose and software-defined radio. This is a key element in the open-spectrum vision.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 10:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Party On
Slate is running my article, Party Like It's 1995, about how the Net has come full circle.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Sorry for the mess here.
Sorry for the mess here. The new design of this site is still a work in progress. I like to evolve the layout by tweaking the template repeatedly, but that means what you see in the interim may not look so hot.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 7:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 2, 2003
It's not over yet
"Goldman Sachs analysts Laura Conigliaro and Rick Sherlund said in a research report that, based on a survey of chief investment officers during the month of December, they expect a 1 percent decline in spending in 2003, compared with a previous outlook for growth of 2 percent to 3 percent."
Enterprise IT spending is only one cyclical element of the overall tech industry, but it's an important one. Until last year, IT spending had never decreased on an annual basis. Indications were that things would start to turn around in 2003, but now that may not be the case.
What this likely means is that 2003 will be a continued gestation period for the technologies such as Web services and collaborative business software that are going to drive the next enterprise IT upswing. The more successful sectors will be those focused on end-users, such as B2C e-commerce, and next-generation infrastructure, such as unlicensed wireless.
Posted by Kevin Werbach at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack