++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ WERBLIST Kevin Werbach's periodic email newsletter October 19, 2002 YOU ARE WELCOME TO RE-SEND THIS MESSAGE TO ANY NUMBER OF COLLEAGUES. Please cc: werblist@werbach.com and I will provide recipients with a subscription. To subscribe or unsubscribe directly, please visit http://two.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/werblist/. Please send your comments to kevin@werbach.com. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ At long last, the first issue of Werblist! Thank you for signing up, especially those who waited for some time for the list to get off the ground. What can I say... I've been busy. One thing keeping me busy is Supernova (http://pulver.com/supernova/) a new conference I'm organizing to explore the implications of the distributed future. It will be held December 9-10 in Palo Alto, CA. See below for more details. Among other things, this issue of Werblist includes an essay explaining my rationale for linking developments in seemingly unrelated industries around the theme of decentralization. I welcome your feedback at kevin@werbach.com. -k- Kevin Werbach ---------------------------------------------------------------------- In this Issue: - Supernova 2002 Details - Why Decentralization Matters - Open Spectrum Working Paper Released - Telecom Hurts So Good ---------------------------------------------------------------------- *SUPERNOVA 2002*: Where the Distributed Future Comes Together In software, communications, and media, devices at the edge of the network are becoming smarter, people are finding new ways to collaborate, and old business models are under siege. Those who understand the challenges and opportunities of decentralization will have a competitive advantage in any economy. Featuring speakers such as Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Cap Gemini Ernst & Young CTO John Parkinson, Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff, Microsoft Corporate VP Dan'l Lewin, and visionary Howard Rheingold, Supernova will be a landmark event. Sign up today at http://pulver.com/supernova/ and save $300 on registration! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Why Decentralization Matters I firmly believe that decentralization is the fundamental technology issue we will be wrestling with over the next decade or more. What's the connection between WiFi wireless networks, Weblogs, and Web services? They are among the few technologies thriving amid the industry-wide downturn. More than that, though, they are examples of the fundamental trend toward decentralization. Decentralization is the critical challenge for the technology, media, and telecommunications industries in the coming decade. All of them have developed with the assumption that there will be powerful central forces managing development. Enterprise IT has "big iron" servers and monolithic software applications; communications has carriers investing in huge infrastructure build-outs; and media has content owners controlling distributions channels. These approaches are under siege. Not because there's a "new economy." Not because information deserves to be free. And not because of any fluctuation in the stock market. Centralized systems are failing for two simple reasons: They can't scale, and they don't reflect the real world of people. The world is becoming increasingly complex. Companies manage supply chains in real-time, while hundreds of thousands of gamers gather in shared virtual worlds. Networks must carry vast and growing amounts of traffic, with no end in sight. Centralized systems eventually crumble under the strain of that complexity. Decentralized approaches often seem impractical, but they work in practice. The Internet itself is a prime example -- it works because the routers, the domain name system, and the content are radically distributed. But it's the human element that is really driving the pressure for decentralized solutions. This shouldn't be too surprising. Biological phenomena like the human body and the global biosphere have had billions of years to evolve, and they are the most complex decentralized systems we encounter. More concretely, people are seeking ways to communicate and collaborate across the artificial boundaries of organizations and geography. They want *their* music, on *their* terms, just as they want high-speed connectivity anywhere, any time. The mantra of Sun founder Bill Joy, one of the smartest people in technology, is that most smart people don't work at Sun. His statement is true of any company, and it's an insight relevant in many other areas. No software application hosts all the critical data in a company. No media outlet produces all the good news analysis. And no network operator controls all the all the access points or all the users. We must build systems that take advantage of the power of the network, but that do so in ways that make business sense. Decentralization is neither automatic nor absolute. The challenge is to find the equilibrium points -- the optimum group sizes, the viable models, and the appropriate social compromises. If we're going to move forward, these are the questions we need to ask. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Open Spectrum Working Paper The New America Foundation has released my working paper, "Open Spectrum: The New Wireless Paradigm." http://www.newamerica.net/Download_Docs/pdfs/Pub_File_1001_1.PDF The paper explains in non-technical terms why unlicensed wireless technologies are so exciting, and why government should take active steps to encourage their continued growth. There is growing interest in open spectrum, both in policy circles and in the private sector. We have a real opportunity to transform the way we manage the airwaves, with huge potential benefits. It's a chance that shouldn't be missed. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Supernova Speaker List The speakers for Supernova have been hand-picked with two criteria: industry leaders who have something to say, and say it in compelling ways. The current confirmed roster is below; please visit http://pulver.com/supernova/speaking.html for the updated list. I'm excited about the group I've been able to assemble, and hope you can join us as we tackle the critical issues surrounding decentralization. Jeremy Allaire, CTO, Macromedia Marc Benioff, CEO Salesforce.com Sergey Brin, Co-Founder, Google Andy Chapman, EVP, Narad Networks Duncan Davidson, CEO, SkyPilot Nick Denton, CEO, Weblog Media Cory Doctorow, Evangelist, EFF Christian Gheorghe, CEO, TIAN Software Morgan Guenther, President, Tivo John Hagel, Consultant and Author David Hagen, President, Boingo Mike Helfrich, VP of Advanced Technology, Groove Networks Meg Hourihan, Co-Author, We Blog: Publishing Online with Weblogs David Isenberg, Isen.com Karl Jacob, CEO, Cloudmark Danl Lewin, Corporate VP, Microsoft Anne Thomas Manes, Author & Former CTO, Systinet Mike McCue, Co-Founder, TellMe John Parkinson, CTO, Cap Gemini Ernst & Young Yatish Pathak, Founder, SOMA Networks Howard Rheingold, Author, Smart Mobs Bill Robins, CEO, Stencil Group Martin Rofheart, CEO, Xtreme Spectrum Sean Ryan, CEO, Listen.com Doc Searls, Linux Journal Clay Shirky, Shirky.com Dave Sifry, Co-Founder, Sputnik Narry Singh, VP of Marketing, CommerceOne Rod Smith, VP of Advanced Technology, IBM David Weinberger, Journal of the Hyperlinked Organization Dave Winer, CEO, Userland ---------------------------------------------------------------------- So Bad That It's Good Things are bad in telecom. Really bad. At an FCC hearing on recovery in the telecom sector earlier this month, Moody's Investors Service managing director Robert Konefal had this to say: "Our outlook for the next 12 to 18 months for all segments is negative." Some recovery! Telecom is on of the three sectors Supernova focuses on, so we must see some reasons for hope. We'll explore more what decentralization means for telecom in future editions of this newsletter. For now, the key point is that there is a silver lining in the gloom-and-doom forecasts. This is the time for long-term thinking in telecom. Anyone expecting the sector to turn around quickly, or betting that consolidation will produce nimble innovative companies who will bring back the good old days of Ma Bell, is in denial. If you can't wait out the trough, you're dead. If you think you can survive, don't waste your time on the short run, because it's already a wash. Perversely, this means emerging technologies such as unlicensed wireless and broadband are more important than ever. They will be the foundations of the next telecom industry, which is the one we should have been pointing toward all along. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Please forward this email to others, and copy werblist@werbach.com; we will provide them with a subscription. To join or leave the list, visit http://two.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/werblist/ or send "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" to werblist-request@werbach.com. Send your comments and feedback to kevin@werbach.com. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ (c) 2002 Kevin Werbach. All Rights Reserved